Analytical estimation of maximum fraction of infected individuals with one-shot non-pharmaceutical intervention in a hybrid epidemic model.

BACKGROUND: Facing a global epidemic of new infectious diseases such as COVID-19, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which reduce transmission rates without medical actions, are being implemented around the world to mitigate spreads. One of the problems in assessing the effects of NPIs is that different NPIs have been implemented at different times based on the situation of each country; therefore, few assumptions can be shared about how the introduction of policies affects the patient population. Mathematical models can contribute to further understanding these phenomena by obtaining analytical solutions as well as numerical simulations. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this study, an NPI was introduced into the SIR model for a conceptual study of infectious diseases under the condition that the transmission rate was reduced to a fixed value only once within a finite time duration, and its effect was analyzed numerically and theoretically. It was analytically shown that the maximum fraction of infected individuals and the final size could be larger if the intervention starts too early. The analytical results also suggested that more individuals may be infected at the peak of the second wave with a stronger intervention. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides quantitative relationship between the strength of a one-shot intervention and the reduction in the number of patients with no approximation. This suggests the importance of the strength and time of NPIs, although detailed studies are necessary for the implementation of NPIs in complicated real-world environments as the model used in this study is based on various simplifications.

Epidemiology of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Yamagata Prefecture, Japan, January-May 2020: the Importance of Retrospective Contact Tracing.

Public health interventions have played an important role in controlling coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is a rapidly spreading infectious disease. To contribute to future COVID-19 countermeasures, we aimed to verify the results of the countermeasures employed by public health centers (PHCs) against the first wave of COVID-19 in Yamagata Prefecture, Japan (Yamagata). Between January and May 2020, 1,253 patients suspected of SARS-CoV-2 infection were invited for testing. Simultaneously, based on retrospective contact tracings, PHCs investigated the infection sources and transmission routes of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and tested 928 contacts. Consequently, 69 cases were confirmed between March 31 and May 4, 58 of whom were from among the contacts (84.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 75.5-92.7). The spread of infection was triggered in cases harboring epidemiological links outside Yamagata. Subsequently, the number of cases rapidly increased. However, PHCs identified epidemiological links in 61 (88.4%; 95% CI 80.8-96.0) of the 69 cases, and transmission chains up to the fifth generation. Finally, the spread of infection ended after approximately one month. Our results indicate that the identification of infection sources and active case finding from contacts based on retrospective contact tracing was likely to be an effective strategy in ending the first wave of COVID-19 in Yamagata.

Isolation of Human Coronaviruses OC43, HKU1, NL63, and 229E in Yamagata, Japan, Using Primary Human Airway Epithelium Cells Cultured by Employing an Air-Liquid Interface Culture.

Isolation of seasonal coronaviruses, which include human coronavirus (HCoV) OC43, HCoV-HKU1, and HCoV-NL63, from primary cultures is difficult because it requires experienced handling, an exception being HCoV-229E, which can be isolated using cell lines such as RD-18S and HeLa-ACE2-TMPRSS2. We aimed to isolate seasonal CoVs in Yamagata, Japan to obtain infective virions useful for further research and to accelerate fundamental studies on HCoVs and SARS-CoV-2. Using modified air-liquid interface (ALI) culture of the normal human airway epithelium from earlier studies, we isolated 29 HCoVs (80.6%: 16, 6, 6, and 1 isolates of HCoV-OC43, HCoV-HKU1, HCoV-NL63, and HCoV-229E, respectively) from 36 cryopreserved nasopharyngeal specimens. In ALI cultures of HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-NL63, the harvested medium contained more than 1 × 104 genome copies/µL at every tested time point during the more than 100 days of culture. Four isolates of HCoV-NL63 were further subcultured and successfully propagated in an LLC-MK2 cell line. Our results suggest that ALI culture is useful for isolating seasonal CoVs and sustainably obtaining HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-NL63 virions. Furthermore, the LLC-MK2 cell line in combination with ALI cultures can be used for the large-scale culturing of HCoV-NL63. Further investigations are necessary to develop methods for culturing difficult-to-culture seasonal CoVs in cell lines.

Longitudinal epidemiology of human coronavirus OC43 in Yamagata, Japan, 2010-2017: Two groups based on spike gene appear one after another.

Human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) is divided into genotypes A to H based on genetic recombination including the spike (S) gene. To investigate the longitudinal transition of the phylogenetic feature of the HCoV-OC43 S gene in a community, phylogenetic analysis of the S1 region of the S gene was conducted using 208 strains detected in Yamagata during 2010 to 2017 with reference strains of the genotype. The S1 sequences were divisible into four groups: A to D. All Yamagata strains belonged to either group B or group D. In group B, 46 (90.2%) out of 51 Yamagata strains were clustered with those of genotype E reference strains (cluster E). In group D, 28 (17.8%) and 122 (77.7%) out of 157 Yamagata strains were clustered, respectively, with genotype F and genotype G reference strains. In cluster G, 28 strains formed a distinct cluster. Monthly distributions of HCoV-OC43 in Yamagata in 2010 to 2017 revealed that group B and group D appeared one after another. In group B, the cluster E strains were prevalent recurrently. In conclusion, epidemics of HCoV-OC43 in Yamagata, Japan might be attributable to two genetically different groups: group B showed a recurrent epidemic of strains belonging to a single phylogenetic cluster and group D showed epidemic strains belonging to multiple clusters.